Texas has not sent a Democrat to the US Senate since 1988, and the Republican establishment is determined to keep it that way — or so they claim.
But something strange is happening in the Lone Star State, and it has nothing to do with James Talarico’s fundraising advantage.
Two fresh polls just tightened the race, and the numbers tell a story that goes far beyond what is happening on the campaign trail.
What the New Polls Actually Show
The latest Texas Public Opinion Research survey, which polled 1,007 likely Texas voters between September 19 and 22 with a 3.6 percent margin of error, found state Representative James Talarico leading current Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton by five points, with 49 percent of the vote against 44 percent.
The previous Texas Public Opinion Research survey, of 1,000 likely Texas voters conducted from August 21 to 24, gave Talarico a six-point lead, with 48 percent of the vote against Paxton’s 42 percent.
So Talarico slipped one point. But the more telling number is what happened to the undecided voters. The proportion of undecided voters fell from seven percent in August to three percent this month, with Libertarian candidate Ted Brown also gaining two percentage points. Those voters did not break for Talarico in a meaningful way. That matters.
Separately, a new Texas Southern University survey gave Talarico a lead of just one point, with 47 percent of the vote against 46 percent for Paxton and three percent for Brown. That survey of 1,800 likely Texas voters took place between September 15 and 19 and had a 2.31 percent margin of error.
In the previous Texas Southern University poll, Talarico was ahead by two percentage points, 47 percent to Paxton’s 45 percent with another two percent for Brown.
While 99 percent of Democrats said they would vote for Talarico, just 84 percent of Republicans said they would vote for Paxton. That Republican number is the problem. Sixteen percent of Paxton’s own party is either sitting out, drifting toward Talarico, or parking with the Libertarian. That is not a Talarico problem. That is a GOP establishment problem.
Talarico leads Paxton according to eight different pollsters, though several are within the margin of error, and thus too close to call.
The Establishment Abandonment Nobody in Washington Wants to Explain
Here is the context the polling headlines skip over. Ken Paxton beat incumbent US Senator John Cornyn (R-TX) in the Republican runoff by a wide margin — Cornyn finished in first place narrowly in the initial March contest, but Paxton surged ahead in May, winning by 28 percentage points. President Trump endorsed Paxton, and the voters followed.
What happened next is a case study in how the Republican establishment handles a MAGA win it did not want.
Cornyn, who during his Senate tenure supported amnesty measures and championed Joe Biden’s gun control legislation, responded to losing his own seat by refusing to lift a finger for the man who beat him. Cornyn, a Texas fundraising powerhouse, made clear he does not intend to do Paxton any favors. He told Semafor that he would not be sending any money to Paxton, adding that President Trump, who endorsed Paxton, “can spend his money.”
And Cornyn did not just stay home quietly. John Cornyn and former President George W Bush joined forces to raise money for Republican Senate hopefuls in other states, with Bush appearing as a special guest at a Dallas fundraiser. Texas Attorney General and Republican Senate nominee Ken Paxton, who ousted Cornyn in a bitter and expensive primary, was notably absent. The event benefited Republicans in competitive races in Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and New Hampshire.
Bush and Cornyn raised money for Republicans in six other states. Not a dollar for the man representing their own.
After Trump’s late endorsement helped propel Paxton over Cornyn, groups like the Senate Leadership Fund, the super PAC affiliated with Senate Majority Leader John Thune, and the National Republican Senatorial Committee, were left scrambling. They scrambled — but not toward Texas. Texas was not among the eight battleground races the NRSC focused on. Texas also did not make the cut for the Thune-linked super PAC’s first round of ad reservations.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune and the NRSC publicly endorsed Paxton after the runoff — the leaders endorsed Paxton only after the state attorney general beat Cornyn in a May 26 runoff. But endorsing a candidate and actually funding his campaign are two very different things. Thune and the NRSC backed Cornyn during the primary. Their reluctance to spend aggressively for Paxton now looks less like a budget constraint and more like institutional payback dressed up as resource allocation.
The result? In the second fundraising quarter, Talarico’s campaign reported raising $28 million, while Paxton’s campaign reported $1.6 million. That is a 17-to-1 disadvantage in a state that costs a fortune to reach voters. Anyone who tells you the polls are tight because Paxton is a weak candidate is leaving that number out of the story.
Elon Musk’s America PAC and President Trump’s super PAC have stepped up to try to fill some of that gap, with America PAC contributing $1.6 million, which a former senior adviser to the National Republican Senatorial Committee said has “fundamentally changed the race.” Sources indicate Musk’s operation focuses more on the ground game, while MAGA Inc. is on digital and mail. But those resources are chasing a hole that Cornyn, Thune, and the NRSC helped dig.
The Michigan Contrast the Establishment Hopes No One Notices
Compare what happened in Texas to what the Democrat Party did in Michigan after Chuck Schumer lost his own primary fight.
US Senator Chuck Schumer (D-NY) endorsed Representative Haley Stevens in Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary. Stevens was Schumer’s hand-picked candidate, and she lost. Abdul El-Sayed won Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary, clinching the nomination in a close race over Representative Haley Stevens. El-Sayed overcame a nearly $65 million onslaught of outside money and an establishment that had rallied around Stevens.
And what did Schumer do after his candidate got beaten? Democratic leadership praised progressive nominee Abdul El-Sayed for winning Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary after making their unofficial backing of his opponent clear during the race. They moved on. They swallowed the loss and backed the winner.
That is the difference. When the Democrat establishment loses a primary, it closes ranks and funds the nominee anyway. When the Republican establishment loses a primary to a MAGA candidate, it fundraises for six other states, refuses to cut a check, and lets the numbers speak for themselves while pretending to be neutral.
The argument the establishment would make — that Paxton carries more scandal baggage than Cornyn would have — is not wrong. But it is also not the whole story. Cornyn supported amnesty for illegal aliens and helped push Joe Biden’s gun control package through the Senate. Texas primary voters knew all of that and still threw him out by 28 points. The base made its call. The establishment’s response was to punish the base by making a Democrat-held Senate majority marginally easier to achieve.
There is a word for that posture. It is not “principled conservatism.”
The broader pattern here is worth sitting with for a moment. Thune’s Senate Leadership Fund spent months during the primary fighting to keep Paxton off the ballot. Now, with a competitive general election in a state Republicans have held for decades, that same operation treats Texas as someone else’s problem. Elements of the Republican establishment appear more comfortable with the prospect of Talarico pulling off an upset than with the prospect of a strong MAGA senator arriving in Washington to make their lives harder. That is a remarkable thing to observe out loud, but the money — or the absence of it — makes it difficult to read the situation any other way.
What the undecided voters in these two new polls did is narrow the remaining pool. The proportion of undecided voters fell from seven percent in August to three percent this month. The race is crystallizing with roughly six weeks to go, and Paxton is doing it without the fundraising machine that normally backs a Republican Senate nominee in a major state. Whether the late surge of PAC money and grassroots enthusiasm can close the gap is the question Texas Republicans — and MAGA voters everywhere — should be watching very closely.
Sources: Newsweek, “Talarico Suffers Double Poll Blow as Texas Undecided Voters Decide”; Axios, “John Thune to attend Texas fundraiser for Ken Paxton”; Texas Tribune, “Why John Cornyn won’t be fundraising in Texas’ US Senate race”; Mediaite, “John Cornyn Goes to Bat for GOP Senate Candidates in Other States — But Not ‘Lazy’ Ken Paxton”; Washington Examiner, “Paxton snubbed from Texas fundraising event with George W Bush and Cornyn”; NBC News, “Elon Musk is flying under the radar in the Texas Senate race”; Ballotpedia News, “Abdul El-Sayed defeated Haley Stevens in the Democratic primary for US Senate in Michigan”; PBS NewsHour, “Abdul El-Sayed wins Michigan Senate primary in major victory for Democrats’ progressive wing”; Fox 7 Austin, “Talarico holds narrow lead over Paxton in latest Texas Senate poll”
