Control of the US Senate looks like it’s come down to one race.
The Republican candidate is sounding the alarm.
And Chuck Schumer just heard seven words that will strike fear in the heart of every Trump supporter.
Paxton Walks Into the General With Empty Pockets
And Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is sounding the alarm in blunt terms that Washington Republicans would rather not hear out loud.
Paxton sat down with Breitbart News Political Editor Bradley Jaye and made clear that what happens in the Lone Star State this November won’t stay in Texas
The financial hole Paxton climbed out of this summer is worth understanding before anything else.
He told Jaye that Talarico “had the ability to raise money for three months that I didn’t have” — a reference to the bruising Republican primary runoff Paxton had to fight through while Democrat James Talarico sat on the sidelines banking cash.
“I started June 1 with basically $0,” Paxton said, while Talarico “had just raised 30 million,” with that money flowing in largely from California and New York.
Talarico entering the general election flush with out-of-state money while Paxton was starting from scratch is exactly the kind of structural disadvantage the GOP establishment either didn’t anticipate or didn’t particularly mind.
Paxton spent the summer clawing back. He announced endorsements from 18 Republican members of Congress from Texas. He visited Washington for a fundraiser. He’s been grinding.
But the question of whether Senate Majority Leader John Thune and the National Republican Senatorial Committee will fully invest in this race remains wide open. The Senate Leadership Fund, closely aligned with Thune, said it was “confident” Paxton would win but declined to address spending plans. The NRSC pointed to a recent Supreme Court decision on coordinated spending limits rather than making any concrete commitment to the race.
And John Cornyn — the incumbent Paxton defeated — has made clear he won’t be sending money Paxton’s way. Cornyn told Semafor he wouldn’t be helping, adding that President Trump, who endorsed Paxton, “can spend his money.”
That’s the posture of an establishment that backed the wrong horse and is now more interested in settling scores than holding the Senate. Cornyn championed amnesty measures and pushed Joe Biden’s gun control legislation. He lost the primary by nearly 28 points. And now he’s sitting out the general while a Democrat with $30 million in coastal money runs ads in his old seat.
Talarico Is Running From His Own Record
Paxton’s core argument about Talarico is simple: the Democrat is hoping Texas voters never find out what he actually voted for.
He accused Talarico of “trying to deceive voters right now” and “running from all these radical positions that he voted on.” The list Paxton rattled off is not a caricature — it’s a voting record. Girls’ sports. Gender transitions for children. A state income tax. Diversity, equity, and inclusion mandates in government schools. Paxton summed it up plainly: Talarico is “really a radical socialist.”
And the attempt to rebrand is underway. Talarico has been courting Cornyn supporters, praising the senator and positioning himself as a reasonable alternative. That’s a play that only works if Republican voters stay home or stay uninformed.
Paxton asked listeners to do something during the interview that landed harder than any attack ad. He told them to “close their eyes” and picture Talarico sitting in the US Senate, caucusing with the Democrat coalition in Washington, casting votes on the issues Texans care about.
“Now open your eyes up,” Paxton said. “That’s a nightmare.”
He argued it would send “a bad, bad signal for the entire country” if Texas handed a Senate seat to someone advancing a “woke leftist agenda” aligned with Democratic Socialists.
“This is a binary choice,” Paxton said, describing the race as a contest between “a radical leftist and a conservative Republican.”
What Losing Texas Actually Means for the Republican Party
Paxton wasn’t speaking loosely when he told Breitbart News that the Senate majority runs through Texas.
“If they take Texas, we’re not going to elect another president from the Republican Party,” he argued, adding that Republicans would also struggle to maintain a congressional majority.
Texas is on Democrats’ “top wish list” precisely because of its electoral weight. Flip it, and the map reshapes permanently. Democrats haven’t won a Senate race in Texas since 1988. But Talarico has $30 million from California and New York, a party that is fully unified behind him, and a Republican establishment in Washington that spent months trying to destroy Paxton in the primary and is now offering something between lukewarm support and polite indifference.
Compare that to what happened in Michigan. When Abdul El-Sayed defeated Rep. Haley Stevens in the Democrat primary — knocking off the candidate that Senate Democrat Leader Chuck Schumer and the Democrat Senatorial Campaign Committee had backed — Democrats didn’t sulk. They congratulated El-Sayed and moved on. Schumer and his allies had spent heavily against El-Sayed during the primary. The moment it was over, they pivoted to protecting the seat.
That’s the contrast. The Democrat machine swallows its losses and fights for the seat. Segments of the Republican establishment are still nursing a grudge while Talarico runs TV ads.
Paxton didn’t dodge the question of party unity. He said he would have backed Cornyn had Cornyn won the primary. He was asked repeatedly during the race whether he’d support the Republican nominee if it wasn’t him. His answer every time: “Absolutely, no doubt about it.” He said he would have done it because he considers Talarico “the most dangerous candidate in Texas that we’ve ever had.”
That’s the standard Paxton applied to himself. It’s worth asking whether the establishment applied the same standard going the other direction.
“Everybody I vote for doesn’t win, but eventually I move on and vote for the Republican,” Paxton said.
Some Washington Republicans haven’t quite gotten there yet. And the clock is running.
Paxton told Jaye he was encouraged by what he had seen as the race entered mid-August. “I know that our voters are starting to get motivated, and that’s the key,” he said. Breitbart News had analyzed polling from earlier in August and found that Talarico had not reached a winning margin, and that the uncommitted voters in the race were voters who traditionally pull the lever for Republicans.
But motivation without money only goes so far. Talarico has been spending millions per week on television. Paxton said his campaign needs to compete on air to make sure Texans actually hear what Talarico voted for in the state legislature — because Talarico is certainly not going to tell them.
The SAVE Act, which President Trump has championed as a commonsense measure to ensure only American citizens decide American elections, polls at 87 percent nationally. Paxton has been a vocal supporter. Talarico’s record on border security, election integrity, and the full range of issues Texans care about is exactly what Paxton wants on the ballot.
If Republicans in Washington decide that a MAGA-aligned nominee who beat their preferred candidate by 28 points isn’t worth the investment — that they’d rather watch the seat flip than hand Paxton a win — they will have made a choice. And that choice will have consequences that outlast any one election cycle.
Losing Texas doesn’t just cost Republicans a Senate seat. It tilts the electoral map in a way that makes winning the White House and holding Congress structurally harder for a generation. Paxton said it plainly. The question is whether the people who control the money in Washington are listening.
Sources: Breitbart News, “Exclusive — Ken Paxton: ‘If We Lose Texas, the Senate’s Gone'” (August 15, 2026); Axios, “John Thune to attend Texas fundraiser for Ken Paxton” (July 6, 2026); NBC News, “Abdul El-Sayed wins Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary” (August 5, 2026); Breitbart News, “Ken Paxton Announces 18 Texas GOP Congressional Endorsements” (August 11, 2026); Breitbart News, “Texas Leftist Talarico Gains Two-Point Edge over Paxton in Senate Race” (August 2, 2026)
