Democrats figured the cake was baked in the 2026 midterm election.
But then the bad news poured in.
And Chuck Schumer got stopped cold in fear by what this massive polling error showed.
Two Huge Polling Errors Panic Democrats
Polls showed socialist Democrats Abdul El-Sayed and Francesca Hong cruising to victory in the Michigan Democrat Senate and Wisconsin Gubernatorial primaries.
The polls in each race showed El-Sayed up 10 and Hong up by 18 points.
But when the votes were counted, El-Sayed eked out a 1-point win, and Hong lost by 4,000 votes.
On CNN, data analyst Harry Enten couldn’t believe the level of polling errors, noting how polls overstated the support for Democrat Socialist candidates.
“I mean, my God, can we catch a break here?” Enten declared. “Look at this: ‘Polls Overstate Lefties in Dem Primaries.’ You know, last week it was 10 points. You think 10 points is a lot? How about 20 points in Wisconsin? Now, I will note that in this case, Wisconsin had some light candidate switches, candidates coming out, candidates leaving the race. I was suspect, after what happened in Michigan, that the polling that showed Francesca Hong up by about 20 points was actually going to come to fruition; but it did happen again. The polls overstated the lefties in Wisconsin just like they did in another Great Lakes battleground state of Michigan.”
Enten noted that in two battleground states, Democrat socialism was not nearly as popular as the polls claimed.
“You’ve got to look at these results and say, ‘Hey, wait a minute, maybe Johnny, maybe these polls are overestimating how much that Democratic socialism is rising within the Democratic Party,’” Enten added, “because in two key statewide races in a row, what we’ve seen is the left is being vastly overestimated; and in the case of Wisconsin, the Democratic Socialist being vastly overestimated by 20 points.”
The Source of the Error
Just like when the polls got President Trump’s races wrong, these polls also likely oversampled white, college-educated voters.
These voters are most likely to be Democrats and open to socialism.
And these voters are also more likely to respond to polls.
Democrats are now facing an even bigger issue.
The party nominated socialists in races across the country, thinking that socialism was ascendant due to voter anger at President Trump over affordability.
And now they are stuck with candidates; key swaths of their own party, El-Sayed and Hong, failed to drive turnover with Black voters and are being rejected in races that will determine control of the United States Senate.
Polls currently show Democrats holding leads in Senate races in Maine, Texas, Ohio, and North Carolina.
Michigan is a toss-up.
But the warning signs are flashing that the polls are overestimating Democrat support.
And that means Chuck Schumer’s plans to seize control of the Senate may have been built on fool’s gold polls.
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